Colts 2023-24 NFL Win Total + Season Record Predictions & Betting Odds
The Indianapolis Colts are coming off one of the most disappointing seasons that any team experienced in 2022-23, winning just four games and finishing third in the AFC South. But with a talented and promising rookie QB, a new coaching staff and a whole new feel around the locker room, our experts have come together to deliver Colts predictions regarding the team’s win total with betting odds powered by BetMGM Sportsbook.
With all the recent Jonathan Taylor news and some media scrutiny surrounding the Colts as a whole entering this season, you might be quick to think this will be a negative review – quite the contrary. Let’s dive into our pick and analysis while detailing the BetMGM $1,500 promo code offer for new users.
COLTS 2023-24 PREDICTION: Colts over 6.5 wins (-120 at BetMGM Sportsbook)
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Indianapolis Colts NFL Season Record & Schedule Predictions
Losing 13 games when the expectation is the playoffs is always tough, but a poor season can also help create an easier schedule the following year. This is certainly the case for the 2023-24 Colts, so analyzing the schedule is where our Colts predictions begin.
Finishing third in the division last year sets up winnable games against fellow third-place finishers like the Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots and Las Vegas Raiders this season. On top of that, the Colts also play the entire NFC South division, which is projected to be one of the weakest divisions yet again after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers managed to win it with a losing record in 2022-23. The Jacksonville Jaguars could establish themselves as a force in the AFC South, but four games against the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans give the Colts every opportunity to go over on their win total.
Where the schedule gets rough is four matchups against the AFC North, all teams who have a realistic shot at the playoffs. If the Colts can steal one or two of those games, however, we feel confident Indy can muster enough wins against one of the top five easiest schedules to cash the over their win total.
Going through the schedule alone is one way to form our Colts predictions, but let's dig into the roster and makeup of this team to build on our analysis before we finalize our pick.
Colts Win Total & Win-Loss Record Predictions for 2023-24
After a collegiate career without any true signature moments or accolades, Colts rookie QB Anthony Richardson is another touted player whose potential and tools exceed any of his stats or accomplishments up to now. This is far from a bad thing – look at Josh Allen who emerged from Wyoming, or Patrick Mahomes out of Texas Tech. Nobody really talks about their college highlights, and Richardson could be next to fit that billing considering his ceiling.
One reason our Colts predictions see Indy clearing the over on its win total: Richardson’s skillset can overcome an offensive line that took a major step back last season. Stud Quenton Nelson is still there, but Richardon’s mobility in passing situations will be key for a unit that ranked dead last in pass blocking last season. Richardson flexed one of the lowest pressure-to-sack rates last season, despite playing in the grueling SEC.
No Jonathan Taylor for at least the first four games hurts, but with new head coach Shane Steichen stepping in after mastering the Philadelphia Eagles offense, we expect this offense to be revamped, utilizing Richardson’s innate ability to throw the deep ball to a steady target like Michael Pittman Jr. and breakout candidate, second-year receiver Alec Pierce. While neither of these wideouts creates exceptions separation, both excel in catch radius on jump balls and downfield targets, pairing well with Richardson’s game.
The concerns for this team are on defense where the secondary loses one of the most reliable in Stephon Gilmore. The front seven will have to get back to creating more pressure to help alleviate these issues, and our Colts predictions rely on this to be the case.
Overall, the Colts’ bad luck should regress this season. Last year, Indy sported a league-worst turnover differential and suffered tremendously in the red zone. Now that there is a new look, we also expect their luck to turn.
The best bet from our Colts predictions is over 6.5 wins (-120 at BetMGM Sportsbook). If you would like to fade our follow our pick, click many of our links to be redirected to BetMGM, where a $1,500 first-bet bonus awaits new users.
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Indianapolis Colts Win Total & Season Record Odds for 2023-24 Presented by BetMGM
The Colts’ win total is set at 6.5 games, carrying -120 odds on the over and +100 odds on the under. A $120 bet in support of our Colts predictions on the over profits $100 if the Colts manage seven wins or more. A $100 bet on the under cashes $100 if the Colts fail to reach seven wins.
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